SPRING 2025
Adjusting Double Poisson Models to Predict the NCAA Division I Softball Championship
AUTHORS
Liam Smith, The University of Alabama ’26, Randall Research Scholars Program
Brendan Ames, University of Southampton, School of Mathematical Sciences
ABSTRACT
While its viewership has surged in recent years, college softball remains an under-researched sport in the domain of sport analytics, partially due to a lack of a longstanding major professional league. However, the postseason format of major college softball – a four-stage layout with two four-team double elimination phases and two best-of-three series – presents an intriguing challenge for predictive models.
Primarily focusing on the first of these four stages, we evaluate the effectiveness of a Double Poisson model in predicting the outcome of this competition.
About the Wharton Sports Analytics Journal
ISSN 3070-4065 (Online)
The Journal is published by the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative and features original student research at the intersection of sports, business, and analytics. Explore the Journal.
