2023 MONEYBALL ACADEMY, ROOKIE REVIEW

AUTHORS

Ethan Lu, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Nassef Sawiris, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Dustin Liu, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Matteo Musicco, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)

ABSTRACT

The fairytale of Leicester City winning the English Premier League in 2015/16 has been well covered. From beginning the season with odds of 5000-1 to win the league; uncovering hidden gems of N’Golo Kante and Riyad Mahrez; the incredible form of Jamie Vardy; to the unique strategy they played compared to their competitors, there were many storylines and explanations that resonated within the soccer community.

In terms of playing style or strategy, there has been a direct or counter attacking nature. Compared to other champions, Leicester City tended to cede possession and instead counter attack teams. However, when compared expected goal values (xG), Leicester were not superior to any other teams. During the season, they were expected to score approximately 66 goals which was close to the actual 68 goals they scored. If Leicester City were so average, how did they even win the league title? There came to be two key reasons. Individual success was one of them. Players such as Riyad Mahrez, N’golo Kante, and Jamie Vardy benefited the Leicester team in ways other players cannot imagine. They outperformed expectation that predicted them to be just average during the season. The second reason is the unique tactical strategy. As mentioned before, Leicester gave up possession to instead focus on counter attacks and play a more direct game. Unlike other top teams in the league, they did not possess the ball; instead, they played forward often rewarding them with goals. Our research ultimately concluded that Leicester City were in fact skilled and that their historical 2015/19 league campaign cannot be attributed to luck.