SPRING 2026

AUTHOR

Jeremiah Liu, Lexington High School, Lexington, Massachusetts

ABSTRACT

Youth sport dropout is often described by the last age of participation, but competitive participation changes over time. An athlete may continue from season to season, become inactive for a period, return later, or leave competition altogether.

This study examines competitive exit in U.S. fencing using an age-structured, observed-state transition analysis. We analyzed 13,206 USA Fencing athlete records from 2017 to 2025 and constructed an athlete-age panel in which each active season was followed by one of three outcomes: continuation to the next age, absence followed by a later return, or terminal non-return within the available follow-up period.

We estimated age-specific transition probabilities by weapon and sex, modeled absence onset and terminal non-return across age, quantified return within two years after absence onset, described gap duration among returners, and calculated approximate expected remaining active seasons.

Continuation was most common at younger ages across all three weapons but declined from adolescence onward. Terminal non-return increased from late adolescence into early adulthood. Temporary absences occurred across the age range but were less common than continuation or terminal non-return. Return was more likely when absence began earlier, and most recoverable gaps lasted only one year. Expected remaining active seasons decreased with starting age and were generally longest in épée.

These results show that competitive exit in fencing is better understood as an age-structured transition process rather than a single quitting age.