SPRING 2026

AUTHORS

Jordan Abell, Latin School of Chicago
Felix Soloway-Gilbert, Pilgrim School
Jonathan Pipping-Gamón, University of Pennsylvania 
Abraham J. Wyner, University of Pennsylvania

ABSTRACT

We examine how draft-pick value declines over the course of the draft in the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB, and how the shape of that decline differs across leagues. Using draft and All-Star data spanning roughly the last 40 years, we fit cubic B-splines to model two outcomes by draft position: the probability that a player is ever selected as an All-Star and the expected number of career All-Star appearances.

Draft value declines in all four leagues, but the rate and shape of that decline vary substantially. Within the first round, the NBA and NHL are markedly more top-heavy than the NFL and MLB. Across the full draft, the MLB and NHL exhibit the steepest early decline, whereas the NFL and NBA follow more gradual and broadly similar trajectories. These cross-league differences may help explain variation in incentives around draft position, including the greater prevalence of tanking in the NBA and NHL.