In this paper, we present an improvement to Offensive Power Rating (OPR), a popular linear regression model for assessing team performance at a given event. One key assumption of linear regression is the independence of the errors, but in the FIRST® Robotics Competition (FRC) context, this assumption is not exactly true. Using data from all district events between 2009 and 2024, we model the unweighted errors as a function of tournament progression and generate weightings to improve the regression fit through Weighted Least Squares (WLS). The best weightings show that the most representative matches for a team’s overall performance are midway through the tournament. That is, the real clutch matches are in the middle.…Read More
