A Comparative Analysis of Rating Systems in the US Junior Tennis Development Pathway

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The United States Tennis Association (USTA) has historically used point-per-round rankings to determine competitive tournament entry and seeding, but this system often rewards participation over quality of play and can be distorted by random draw effects. Alternative systems such as Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) and World Tennis Number (WTN) use algorithmic predictive modeling based on prior head-to-head results to estimate player ability across gender, age, and geography. Although previous studies (Im, 2023; Kiely, 2025; Krall, 2025; Mayew, 2023) have evaluated predictive accuracy between these two systems using smaller, elite-level samples, large-scale analyses spanning all competitive levels of U.S. junior tennis remain limited.…Read More

The Importance of Break Point Percentage

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In tennis, players alternate who serves in each game. Often players can hold their serving game while breaking your opponent’s serve is far more difficult. Our project examines how important break points are and how break point percentages affect the outcome of a match. Winners were found to have a higher break point percentage by 14.0%, and there is a slight variation across surfaces.…Read More