SPRING 2022, VOLUME 3
Creating a Better Pythagorean Expectation for Basketball
AUTHORS
Richard Zhuang, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Baillie Weil, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Andrew Hyde, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
ABSTRACT
Pythagorean win expectation uses the average points scored for and against per game to predict the number of wins a team ‘should’ have won. In this work we attempt to construct a more predictive expectation determination based on per possession points to predict wins totals in NBA games. Additionally, we standardize for seasons and home-court advantage by measuring strength of schedule using per possession numbers.
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