SPRING 2022, VOLUME 3
Go For It? A Data Driven Analysis of NFL 4th Downs
AUTHORS
Solomon Lerman, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Bennett Stein, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Nakul Solai, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Ricky Martin, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
ABSTRACT
While some forward-thinking NFL coaches such as Doug Peterson and John Harbaugh have adopted an analytical approach regarding their fourth down decision making, many have ignored such data. Most NFL coaches do not make consistent data driven 4th down calls. We believe factors that may contribute to this poor decision making are personal image and job security and criticism/risk avoidance. In this study, we explore under what situations it is beneficial for an NFL team to go for it on fourth down rather than settling for a field goal in order to maximize points scored. Our dataset included all 4th down non-kicking plays in the NFL between 2009 -2019.
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