SPRING 2023

AUTHORS

Allen Sha, W’23; Noah Hyman, W’23; Joshua Sewell, W’23; and Aron Ramsey, W’23
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Faculty Advisor: Abraham Wyner, PhD
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the challenge of predicting which low-seeded teams will make it to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Championship tournament. The authors utilized power scores and simulations to predict Cinderella teams and examined the factors that contribute to their success. The study found that power scores alone were insufficient to identify Cinderella teams, and that favorable matchups and luck also played significant roles. Identifying the factors that contribute to the success of Cinderella teams is important, as predicting these outcomes is notoriously difficult and has been an ongoing challenge for sports analysts. While historical odds may still be effective in predicting outcomes, further research is needed to refine methods for predicting Cinderella teams and improve the accuracy of future predictions. The findings offer valuable insights into the methods and challenges of predicting outcomes in sports, and highlight the need for continued research in this area.