FALL 2025

AUTHORS

Joshua Weissbock, Carleton University
Dr. Shirley Mills, Carleton University

ABSTRACT

Prior academic research in Formula One, most notably M¨uhlbauer (2010), concluded that starting grid positions were the strongest determinants of race outcomes while only examining the top eight finishers (fewer than 40%) of the competitors over a shortened sample of 4 seasons (2006–2009). This truncated sample approach limited the generalizability of its findings and likely affected the observed relationships.

This study attempts to correct these findings by using a much more comprehensive dataset of over 7,800 driver-weekend pairings, spanning nearly two decades of sporting activity and multiple technical eras, while including the entire racing field. We extended the original analysis, by applying contingency coefficients, as well as rank-order correlations and ordinal logistic regression, to quantify the strength of association between sessions in a race weekend (practices, qualification, starting grid, and finishing position). This extended work indicates that qualifying performance, rather than the starting grid (often altered by post-qualification adjustments due to penalties), exhibits the strongest and most consistent association with outcomes. By re-evaluating this start-finish relationship with more complete data and transparent methods, this study corrects earlier misinterpretations and reinforces that qualifying is the most accurate indicator of the underlying driver and car performance across a weekend, season, and regulatory eras.