FALL 2024
To Go for Two or Not to Go for Two? A Statistical Analysis of the Biggest Prisoner’s Dilemma in the National Football League
AUTHORS
Atul Venkatesh, Dartmouth College
Gavin Bulthuis, University of Minnesota
ABSTRACT
In the National Football League, after a team scores a touchdown, they can kick an extra point or attempt a two-point conversion. Historically, teams have opted for the former, as it had a much higher likelihood of success. In 2015, however, the NFL instituted a rule to move the extra point distance back 13 yards, making it a more difficult kick. This paper will analyze the effect of this rule on the extra point rate, statistically analyzing both strategies and offering recommendations to both NFL teams and the league itself
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