SPRING 2024

AUTHOR

Jayan Gandhi, Buckingham, Browne & Nichols School

ABSTRACT

In the National Football League (NFL), team salary caps mean money spent on players on one position reduces the ability to spend resources on others. Salary cap hits for kickers in 2023 ranged from under $1M to almost $6M, with cash salaries exhibiting an even wider range (<$1M to >$9M). Kickers have been primarily judged on the overall accuracy of their kicks within specific kick ranges. However, such an approach does not include factors such as wind, humidity, temperature, and other variables that could affect the probability of a successful kick.

This paper describes a new, up-to-date metric, expected points above average (EPAA), that incorporates significant weather-related factors in addition to kick distance to evaluate kicker performance. Subsequently, each kicker’s EPAA is compared to their salary to assess the cost of performance to determine kicker value. In 2023, there was no correlation between EPAA and kicker salaries. The lack of correlation between EPAA and salary presents an opportunity: NFL executives can use this metric as a screening tool to identify kickers that can deliver strong results at a relatively low cost to generate a source of potential competitive advantage in a salary cap-constrained environment. Using this method for the most recent NFL season in 2023, twelve kickers were found to have high EPAA ratings and low cost and warrant further consideration as players who could improve rosters. Conversely, four kickers were identified as having low EPAA scores and high salaries and similarly could be evaluated further for potential replacement.