FALL 2022

AUTHORS

Hudson Parks, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Cole Ceklosky, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Jake Roseman, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Jonah Awad, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)
Jimmy Yan, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)

ABSTRACT

In the NFL, when playing in poor weather (cold and/or windy), teams often choose relatively run-heavy gameplans. We examine how different NFL weather conditions impacted the effectiveness of both run and pass plays. Using data from nflfastR, the Expected Points Added (EPA) per play from all plays between 2014-2021, was assessed over different temperatures and wind speeds.

As the wind speed increases, passing plays become less effective while rushing play remain roughly constant. As temp increases, passing becomes more effective, while rushing gets worse.