SPRING 2023

AUTHOR

Samantha Kostacos, Germantown Academy, PA, USA  (Moneyball Academy Training Camp FLEX)

ABSTRACT

Data analytics are used regularly in professional sports today. In particular, NBA basketball has used data science to determine that a strategy of taking more three-point shots has been shown to be effective. However, similar studies have not been done at the high school level. I interpreted data taken from a men’s high school basketball team over the course of one year. Specifically, I recorded the two and three-point shots attempted, the made field goals, field goal percentages and the outcomes of the games.

The hypothesis was that increasing the number of three-point shot attempts would lead to a higher offensive rating and wins. After the data was recorded, a series of regression graphs were created to analyze the data. Field goal percentages were calculated from two and threepoint ranges. Graphs compared the field goal percentage vs offensive rating. Three-point shots made and field goal percentage were compared to effective field goal percentage. A comparison of the number of shot attempts with offensive rating and effective field goal percentage were also performed. Finally, the R2 values were compared to determine whether more two-point or three-point shot attempts correlated with victories.

The data showed that higher shooting percentages correlated with better offensive rating and higher effective field goal percentages. However, more shot attempts and a higher percentage of three- point shot attempts did not correlate with victories. The data suggested that a strategy of more three-point shooting was not beneficial in men’s high school basketball.