Research Note Archives

Stars Matter: an Analysis of College Football Recruiting, Development, and Draft Success

Successful NCAA Division I Football (FBS) programs can recruit better high school players and they also produce players that are highly drafted into the NFL. This work explores which FBS programs are better at developing their players for the NFL draft, factoring in player recruiting quality. Recruiting class rating data from 247Sports.com was combine with Draft data from CollegeFootballData.com. Ohio State, Alabama and Penn State were found to be the best programs at developing their players for the NFL draft.…Read More

Predicting Career Wins Above Replacement from Rookie Stats in Baseball: Addressing the Esteban German Dilemma

Predicting Career Wins Above Replacement from Rookie Stats in Baseball: Addressing the Esteban German Dilemma, by Jack Blumenstein, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy), Josh Braverman, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy), Lekh Murthy, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy), and Wilson Wendt, University of Pennsylvania (Moneyball Academy)…Read More

Optimal Pitch: Spin Rate & Velocity to Maximize Whiff Rate

In baseball it is commonly believed that throwing harder, pitches of higher velocity, leads to more whiffs, a batter’s swing and miss at a pitch. In this study, we investigate if pitch spin rate and velocity affect the whiff rate. MLB pitcher pitch data was from baseball savant’s statcast. However, we observe a weak correlation between velocity and whiff rate. If more velocity doesn’t lead to more whiffs, then is spin the key factor that affects a pitcher’s ability to miss bats?…Read More

In a Rush to Pass: NFL Teams Pass on Rushing

In the NFL, on average passing plays generate more yardage than rushing plays – 6.7 compared to 4.4 yards/play over the 2019 season. Why don’t teams pass more? Does the value of passing diminish as you throw more often? Also, does passing efficiency increase if you have a more even play distribution?…Read More

Analyzing the Value of Starting Pitchers vs Relief Pitchers in MLB

In Major League Baseball, starting pitchers and relief pitchers have different value equations, and teams allocate financial resources separately to those positions. In this study we explore if for already-contending teams, is it smarter to invest in a starting rotation or a bullpen? Should a team invest to improve their starting pitchers or relief pitchers, assuming they have the opportunity to do so? …Read More