baseball Archives

A Paradox of Blown Leads: Rethinking Win Probability in Football

A person with headphones monitors multiple screens displaying sports statistics and a live soccer match in a stadium setting.

Research Note FOOTBALL A Paradox of Blown Leads: Rethinking Win Probability in Football Authors: Jonathan Pipping, Ph.D. Student, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team Abraham J. Wyner, Faculty Co-Director, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: July 4, 2025 Introduction Over the last 15 years, an explosion of…Read More

Introducing xCTRL: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy

A baseball and a bat on a dirt field, illuminated by warm sunlight, representing an outdoor baseball game setting.

Research Note BASEBALL Introducing xCTRL: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy Authors: Matt Ludwig Ryan S. Brill, Ph.D., Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team Abraham J. Wyner, Faculty Co-Director, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: June 10, 2025 Traditional baseball metrics such as WHIP (walks plus…Read More

The Hall of Fame Cut in Major League Baseball

Research Note BASEBALL The Hall of Fame Cut in Major League Baseball Author: Shane T. Jensen, Professor of Statistics and Data Science, The Wharton School Published: January 22, 2025 1. Introduction In this paper, I create a new quantitative standard for the baseball Hall of Fame that is unambiguous while…Read More