Beyond Expected Goals (xG+) redefines how we measure scoring danger in soccer by valuing not just shots—but the moments that create them. By combining the probability of taking a shot with the chance of scoring it, xG+ captures players’ true creative impact, better predicts team performance, and finally gives credit for the skill that happens before the shot.…Read More
Research Note FOOTBALL A Paradox of Blown Leads: Rethinking Win Probability in Football Authors: Jonathan Pipping, Ph.D. Student, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team Abraham J. Wyner, Faculty Co-Director, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: July 4, 2025 Introduction Over the last 15 years, an explosion of…Read More 
Research Note BASEBALL Introducing xCTRL: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy Authors: Matt Ludwig Ryan S. Brill, Ph.D., Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team Abraham J. Wyner, Faculty Co-Director, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: June 10, 2025 Traditional baseball metrics such as WHIP (walks plus…Read More
Research Note BASEBALL The Hall of Fame Cut in Major League Baseball Author: Shane T. Jensen, Professor of Statistics and Data Science, The Wharton School Published: January 22, 2025 1. Introduction In this paper, I create a new quantitative standard for the baseball Hall of Fame that is unambiguous while…Read More 
Research Note SOCCERWORLD CUP Optimal Substitution Time Authors: Kaishu Mason, WG'25 Paul Sabin, Senior Sports Analytics Fellow, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: October 31, 2024 The Greatest Game In the 2022 World Cup final against Argentina, France was down two goals as their hope of repeating as World…Read More 
Research Note FOOTBALL Fourth Down Conversion Frequencies Are Higher Than You Think Authors: Ryan S. Brill, Ph.D. Candidate, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team Abraham J. Wyner, Faculty Co-Director, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: September 20, 2024 During the Monday Night Football game on September 16,…Read More 
Research Note FOOTBALL Who has the Biggest Home-Field Advantage? It’s Not Who You Think. Why EA Sports new college football game’s home field advantage rankings are not backed by data. Author: Paul Sabin, Senior Sports Analytics Fellow, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: July 9, 2024 EA Sports…Read More 
