research note

Beyond Expected Goals (xG+) redefines how we measure scoring danger in soccer by valuing not just shots—but the moments that create them. By combining the probability of taking a shot with the chance of scoring it, xG+ captures players’ true creative impact, better predicts team performance, and finally gives credit for the skill that happens before the shot.…Read More

Research Note FOOTBALL A Paradox of Blown Leads: Rethinking Win Probability in Football Authors: Jonathan Pipping, Ph.D. Student, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team Abraham J. Wyner, Faculty Co-Director, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: July 4, 2025 Introduction Over the last 15 years, an explosion of…Read More

Research Note BASEBALL Introducing xCTRL: A Probabilistic Approach to Pitch Location Accuracy Authors: Matt Ludwig Ryan S. Brill, Ph.D., Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Research Team Abraham J. Wyner, Faculty Co-Director, Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative Published: June 10, 2025 Traditional baseball metrics such as WHIP (walks plus…Read More

Research Note BASEBALL The Hall of Fame Cut in Major League Baseball Author: Shane T. Jensen, Professor of Statistics and Data Science, The Wharton School Published: January 22, 2025 1. Introduction In this paper, I create a new quantitative standard for the baseball Hall of Fame that is unambiguous while…Read More